ScenarioSuperintelligence control and containment assurance

Superintelligence Strategic Risk Analyst

Also called ASI Risk Analyst

A Superintelligence Strategic Risk Analyst would map how broadly superhuman systems could affect institutions and security. Whether the job exists depends on how AI develops. If it does, it would shape what a company chooses to build, deploy or refuse.

What they do

The analyst would build explicit scenarios for a world where systems far exceed expert human groups across consequential tasks. Each scenario would set out its assumptions, the branches that follow, and the evidence that would prove it wrong. They would work with control researchers, security staff and governance leads to test where oversight might fail. They would trace second-order effects across systems, not just single failures. They would write for decision makers, update scenarios when new evidence arrives, and flag where the analysis runs out of support.

What a strong hire delivers

In the first months, a strong hire would produce a small set of scenario analyses that leadership can actually use. Assumptions would be stated, branches would be clear, and each scenario would carry falsifiers. They would also set up a way to review scenarios as evidence changes, and give the team a shared account of what is known, what is guessed and what would change a decision.

How you can tell they are good

Ask them to walk through a scenario they have written. Look for explicit assumptions, branches that really diverge, and falsifiers that could be checked. Ask what would make them abandon it. Strong candidates separate evidence from speculation and say plainly where they do not know. Be wary of confident single forecasts, vague language, or analysis that never touches a decision.

Why it is hard to fill

If this role emerged, the people would be scarce because no established career leads to it. Candidates would come from several fields and few would have written decision-grade scenarios under deep uncertainty. Titles would vary and mean different things. A recruiter would have to judge reasoning quality, not credentials, because nobody could show a track record on systems that do not yet exist.

Where to find them

Today, the closest people sit in AI control research, security, formal verification and system safety. Others work in AI governance and assurance, or in frontier scenario analysis at research institutes, policy groups and safety teams. Look for analysts who have handled high-consequence risk in other fields, such as critical infrastructure or national security, and who can reason carefully about technical systems.

Interview questions for a Superintelligence Strategic Risk Analyst

  1. Describe a scenario analysis you wrote under deep uncertainty. How did you structure the assumptions and branches?

    A strong answer names explicit assumptions, shows branches that diverge for stated reasons, and explains how the work informed a decision. Worry if they describe a single forecast, hide assumptions or cannot say who used the analysis.

  2. What falsifiers would you attach to a scenario where systems exceed expert groups across most consequential tasks?

    Good answers give observable, checkable signals, including ones that would end the scenario entirely. Worry about falsifiers that are vague, untestable or conveniently unreachable.

4 more questions, with what a strong answer covers, are in the Role Kit.

Job description you can post

We are looking for an analyst to study how highly capable AI systems could affect security and institutions if capability advances far beyond today. You would build scenario analyses that help us decide what to build, deploy or hold back, and be honest about uncertainty.

What you will do

  • Write scenario analyses with explicit assumptions, branches and falsifiers
  • Assess systemic risks from broadly superhuman systems
  • Work with control, security and governance colleagues to test oversight assumptions
  • Brief leadership in clear language on decisions and trade-offs
  • Review and update scenarios as new evidence arrives
  • Record uncertainty and open questions transparently

What you will bring

  • Demonstrated scenario or systems-risk analysis used in real decisions
  • Working knowledge of AI control, security, system safety or formal verification
  • Clear writing that separates evidence from speculation
  • Ability to challenge assumptions, including your own
  • Experience collaborating with technical researchers
  • Comfort working where no standard methods exist

Nice to have

  • Background in AI governance and assurance
  • Experience with high-consequence risk in another field
  • Published or reviewable analytical work

Free to use and adapt. If it saves you time, a link back to this page is appreciated.

Depends on a scenario

Superintelligent systems with major strategic capability

What AI would need to do
Systems substantially exceed human expert groups across broad consequential cognitive tasks.
What organisations would need to decide
Such systems are developed or deployed and institutions seek credible control and external oversight.
What would rule it out
No broad superhuman capability or no usable, governable deployment emerges.

We give no date. The role becomes real if both conditions hold.

Skills that matter

  • AI controlAdvancedLimit harm from potentially untrusted AI behaviour
  • Formal verificationAdvancedProve stated properties under explicit assumptions
  • AI governance and assuranceWorkingAssign accountability and verify lifecycle controls
  • Frontier scenario analysisWorkingExplore conditional outcomes without claiming predictions

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How we wrote this

Role definitions are our own editorial work, checked against occupational classifications, standards, research and employer pages. Titles vary by company, and this is a description of the work, not a job advert. Scenario roles describe responsibilities that depend on stated conditions; they are not forecasts.

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